The short answer
Power is the main thing holding back 56% of the 87 U.S. data center projects that plan 1 GW or more, against 21% of projects under 500 MW. That makes gigawatt campuses 2.7 times as likely to be stuck on power. Across all 285 GW in development, power is the main limit on 53% of the capacity. Equipment is the main limit on 1 of the 87 gigawatt projects.
- Power is the main constraint on 49 of 87 projects of 1 GW or more (56%), 11 of 33 at 500 MW to 1 GW (33%), and 36 of 174 under 500 MW (21%).
- Across the whole pipeline, 152 GW (53%) is held back mainly by power.
- For the projects tracked, equipment is the main constraint on 1 of 87 gigawatt projects, so this is a power story before it is a chip story.
- Four utilities and generators described power deals or market gaps tied to data centers in 10-Q reports filed November 2 to 9, 2026. Several of the deals date from earlier in the year.
- A signed power date is a better sign than a groundbreaking.
How many gigawatt data centers are stuck on power?
More than half. Of the 87 U.S. data center projects that plan 1 GW or more, 49 (56%) are held back mainly by power. Among projects under 500 MW, the share is 21%. That is a gap of 2.7 times.
- of 1 GW+ projects are stuck mainly on power
- 56%
- of projects under 500 MW are
- 21%
- how much likelier a gigawatt project is to be stuck on power
- 2.7x
- of all 285 GW in development is held back mainly by power
- 53%
- Under 500 MW21%
36 of 174 projects
- 500 MW to 1 GW33%
11 of 33 projects
- 1 GW and up56%
49 of 87 projects
Share of projects in each size band whose main constraint is power. Source: Spezia tracker, data read November 9, 2026.
For the full picture of the pipeline these projects belong to, see the U.S. AI data center pipeline.
Why does power get harder as projects get bigger?
The simple explanation is that a bigger load asks more of the grid, and a grid changes slowly. A project that needs hundreds of megawatts can often be served by an existing substation with some upgrades. A project that needs a gigawatt or more may need new generation, new transmission lines, or both.
Those are built by utilities and grid operators, approved by regulators, and paced in years. A developer controls none of that. Industry reporting describes the same pattern. Data Center Knowledge calls power the biggest gating item on a site and notes that some developers install their own generation. Global Data Center Hub describes interconnection as often the slowest step.
The data fits that explanation. The share of projects stuck on power rises at every step up in size, from 21% to 33% to 56%. The reverse holds for projects with nothing in the way: 53% of the small ones are on track, against 15% of the gigawatt ones.
Is the limit chips or power?
For the projects Spezia tracks, it is power first. Equipment, which covers chips, servers, transformers and other gear, is the main constraint on 1 of the 87 gigawatt projects.
That is a statement about what holds up projects, not about chip supply to the industry. A project waiting on power today may wait on equipment tomorrow. But it does change where to look. If you want to know whether a planned campus will open on time, the question to ask first is when it gets power.
What are utilities and grid operators doing about it?
They are signing, filing and building. Four companies described power deals or market gaps tied to data center load in quarterly reports filed with the SEC from November 2 to 9, 2026. Several of the deals date from earlier in the year.
| Company | What the filing says | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| Talen Energy, on PJM | Describes a one-time PJM procurement sized on "the recent 2028/2029 PJM BRA shortfall of 6.8 GW", the gap in the grid operator's capacity auction for that delivery year | 10-Q, Nov 3 |
| Entergy Louisiana | Applied to certify seven new combined-cycle units totaling 5,278 MW at about $12.9 billion, and signed a service agreement with Evest LLC, a Meta subsidiary, for a second new data center in north Louisiana. Both are still before regulators | 10-Q, Nov 2 |
| Vistra | Announced in January 20-year power purchase agreements with Meta for a total of 2,609 MW of carbon-free power and capacity | 10-Q, Nov 9 |
| Southern Company | Reports contracts since 2023 with new data centers and other large-load customers covering about 16 GW of electric load, with about 4 GW more awaiting review | 10-Q, Nov 5 |
Read together, three of the four describe supply being lined up for data centers and other large customers, in gigawatts, with Meta named in two. The fourth shows the grid operator's side: a capacity gap large enough to need a one-time procurement. None of that changes the position of a project that has no power date today.
What does it sound like on the ground?
In Harwood, North Dakota, the mayor described the gap in plain terms. Applied Digital is building two data center buildings there. "We only have power for one and a half," Mayor Blake Hankey said in an interview, as reported by Valley News Live.
It is one town and one project, so it proves nothing on its own. It is a picture of the pattern in the numbers: a plan for two buildings, with power so far for one and a half.
What should you do with this?
Spezia's read, by reader:
- Investors. Discount gigawatts that have no stated power date. A groundbreaking says a developer has land and money. An energization date says the power will be there.
- Suppliers and contractors. Work backward from each project's power timeline. The schedule for your trade follows it, and a slipped power date is the earliest warning of a slipped job.
- Developers. Lock interconnection before you announce, not after.
- Utilities and regulators. The pipeline is the demand you are planning against, and 46% of its capacity is announced only.
For a way to check any single project, see how to vet a data center project. For where the new supply is being planned, see the power plants near data center projects.
Filter to your states and project stages. Open a project file to see who is paying, building and supplying, with each source.
Open the data center trackerHow this was made
Spezia's project tracker reads public filings, permits and reporting, and keeps every fact with the sentence it was read from. This analysis covers U.S. data center projects that are not yet operating and report a capacity, with records of the same project merged (same state, capacity within 5%, no conflicting city). Capacity is the planned full build-out. A project's main constraint is Spezia's model reading its sources, and it is shown only for groups of 25 projects or more. The utility figures come from each company's own quarterly report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, quoted from the filing.
The data was read on November 9, 2026. Figures change as new research lands, and this post is updated when they do.
Sources
- Spezia U.S. data center project tracker, research run of November 9, 2026, Spezia
- Talen Energy Corp, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
- Entergy Corp, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
- Vistra Corp, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
- Southern Company, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
- Harwood mayor reveals millions in projected tax revenue for Fargo Public Schools from Applied Digital data center, Valley News Live
- From Permit to Power-On: How Data Centers Actually Get Built, Global Data Center Hub
- Gridlocked: how power constraints are shaping the future of data centers, Data Center Knowledge
Common questions
Why are data centers stuck on power?
A large data center needs more electricity than the local grid often has to spare. Serving it can take new generation or new transmission, which utilities, grid operators and regulators build over years. A developer controls none of that timeline.
Is the AI build-out limited by chips or by power?
For the projects Spezia tracks, power comes first. It is the main constraint on 53% of the planned capacity, while equipment is the main constraint on 1 of 87 gigawatt projects. A project waiting on power today may wait on equipment later.
What is a power date?
A power date is the day a utility or grid operator has committed to first deliver electricity to a site, often called energization. Full power can arrive in stages after it. It is a firmer sign of progress than an announcement, because it depends on equipment and approvals outside the developer's control.
How does Spezia decide a project's main constraint?
Spezia's model reads the project's sources and names the one thing most likely to hold it back: power, permits, financing, opposition, equipment, labor or nothing. It is a judgment, so it is published only for groups of 25 projects or more and never about a named project.
Does this mean the data center build-out will stall?
No. 90 GW is held back mainly by permits, money, opposition or equipment, 43 GW is on track, and utilities are adding generation. It means timing is uncertain for the largest projects, and that a project's power date is a better guide than its announcement.
Cite this
Spezia. "Gigawatt data centers are 2.7 times as likely to be stuck on power" Spezia, November 10, 2026. https://spezia.ai/blog/gigawatt-data-center-power-wall
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