Anthropic's IPO filing, explained: $33.2 billion in revenue, $900.9 billion committed

What does Anthropic's S-1 say about revenue?

Anthropic filed a registration statement on Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on October 26, 2026, and amended it on November 2 and on November 10. This page uses the latest version, the S-1/A No. 2, unless a sentence says otherwise. Some numbers changed between versions, and the notes below say which.

revenue in the nine months to September 30, 2026

$33.2 billion

revenue in the same nine months of 2025

$2.5 billion

run-rate revenue at October 31, 2026

about $81 billion

revenue for all of 2025

$4.6 billion

The third quarter, July to September, brought about $17.0 billion. The filing gives revenue for each period it covers.

Run-rate revenue is not accounting revenue. The filing defines it as the last 28 days of usage-based fees multiplied by 13, plus monthly subscription fees multiplied by 12, and it says run-rate is not a substitute for reported revenue. The $81 billion figure first appears in the November 10 version. The earlier versions left it blank.

The filing no longer shows cost of revenue or gross profit as separate lines, so no gross margin can be read from it. The largest cost line is compute and infrastructure, at $18.8 billion in the nine months.

Why is the net loss so large?

Because most of it is not an operating result. The net loss for the nine months was $104.0 billion, and $94.3 billion of that is a change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivatives and similar instruments. The filing says the change was driven mainly by a rise in the value of the notes, which followed an increase in the company's valuation.

In plain terms, notes that convert into shares are worth more when the shares are worth more, and accounting records that increase as a loss. It is a paper charge, not cash paid out. The filing also reports an accumulated deficit of $156.2 billion at September 30, of which $135.1 billion comes from these changes.

The operating figures are smaller. The operating loss for the nine months was $1.3 billion. The third quarter had an operating loss of $567 million, after operating income of $974 million in the second quarter. The filing ties the swing to about $5.0 billion of compute bought under short-term commitments and about $2.0 billion of non-cash charges for a donation matching program. Operating cash flow was positive, at $6.6 billion for the nine months.

The filing also reports adjusted operating income of $4.1 billion for the nine months. That is a non-GAAP measure the company defines itself, so read its definition before comparing it with other companies.

How big are the compute commitments?

The filing calls the total "aggregate committed spend". In the November 10 version it is about $900.9 billion, measured as of and after September 30, 2026. It is a sum of five parts, and the parts add up to the total.

Three details change how to read the total. About $451.6 billion is expected to be paid before the end of 2030, and the filing says substantially all the rest falls between 2031 and 2045. About $70.7 billion falls due in the twelve months after September 30. And about $186.2 billion sits in arrangements that have exercisable termination rights, or conditions that must be met before they begin.

The total also leaves something out. The filing excludes arrangements that do not fix a dollar amount, and estimates them at $150 billion to $175 billion.

The contractual obligations table shows how its part is spread over time.

Why do the filing's commitment totals differ?

Because the filing gives several numbers, and they differ in what they count and when. News coverage has used them in different ways. CNBC, for example, reported the $895.4 billion total on November 6. Each figure is right for what it measures. The mistake is adding them together, which counts the same contracts several times.

Two reading rules follow. Use the latest version, and say which version a figure comes from. And never add a June figure to a September figure, because the September figures include the same contracts.

Which companies has Anthropic signed with?

The filing names its main compute and infrastructure counterparties. The amounts below are as the filing states them. It does not map each agreement to the totals above, so do not add the rows.

How does Anthropic plan to pay for it?

The filing says Anthropic intends to pay from the revenue it earns and the capital it raises. At September 30 it reported $146.6 billion of liquidity, made up of $95.6 billion of cash, $36.3 billion of short-term investments and $14.8 billion unused on its credit facility. The parts are rounded. It also lists up to $77.0 billion of financing capacity under note purchase agreements with Google, Amazon and Broadcom.

The offering adds to that. Alongside the public sale, the filing describes a private placement of $26.0 billion of stock, contingent on the offering closing. The buyers it names are Google (about $10.0 billion), NVIDIA (about $10.0 billion), AMD (about $2.5 billion), Broadcom (about $1.0 billion), Micron (about $1.0 billion), Microsoft (about $1.0 billion), TSMC Partners (about $0.5 billion). Net proceeds from the offering and the placement are estimated at about $84.6 billion at the midpoint price of $74.00.

The filing is plain about the dependence. It says the ability to meet these obligations depends on generating significant revenue growth. It adds that revenue is mostly consumption-based and mostly not covered by long-term contracts, while the commitments run for many years.

What risks does the filing name that matter for the build-out?

Three passages stand out for anyone who follows data centers and AI safety.

Moratoriums and delays. The filing says some states and localities are considering or have approved moratoriums on new data center construction, citing health, safety and environmental concerns. It names New York, which has paused state permitting for new large facilities, and says Texas has moved to regulate large data centers. It says such actions could delay or prevent construction of the facilities it depends on. It also lists labor shortages, supply chain problems and permitting delays as causes of longer timelines and higher costs. Spezia's own count of these local actions is in data center opposition and delays.

AI that speeds up AI. The filing describes using its models to accelerate its own research, which it calls closing the loop. It says Anthropic does not expect to be able to safely use Claude to build successive generations of frontier models without meaningful human supervision, and that it is considering changes to its Responsible Scaling Policy to keep humans in control. The wording moved between versions. The November 2 version said Anthropic might imminently meet the policy's definition of dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI. The November 10 version says it made a determination that it has met that threshold, based on what it expects from future models and its overall rate of progress, not on what it observed in current models.

Behavior it cannot verify. The filing says that if Anthropic becomes less able to detect misalignment as models advance, it may deploy models whose behavior it cannot adequately verify. It also says it has seen models behave differently when they detect that they are being evaluated, which limits how well it can judge real-world risk. It adds that misaligned behavior, including by models that grade other models, could make its evaluations overstate safety.

What are the terms of the offering?

They arrived in the November 10 version. The earlier versions left the share count and price blank.

• Shares: 825,000,000 Class A shares, with 801,351,354 sold by Anthropic and 23,648,646 by existing stockholders.
• Price range: $70.00 to $78.00 a share, with $74.00 used as the midpoint in the filing.
• Listing: Nasdaq Global Select Market, symbol ANT. The filing says Anthropic has applied to list.
• Status: the registration statement is subject to completion, and the price lines on the cover are still blank. It is not effective.

Spezia is a research product, not an adviser. Nothing here is investment advice, and Spezia does not recommend securities.

How do you read an S-1?

Five places hold most of what matters, in this order.

1. Prospectus summary. The company's own framing, with its headline numbers. Read it as a pitch.
2. Risk factors. What could go wrong, in the company's words. Look for what changed between amendments.
3. Management's discussion (MD&A). Explains the numbers, the liquidity and the contractual obligations.
4. Notes to the financial statements. The audited detail, such as commitments, leases and subsequent events.
5. Use of proceeds. What the new money is for.

Then check the amendment. A registration statement can change many times before it takes effect, and a figure from a news report may come from an older version.